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THE FATE OF CANADA’S HOUSING MARKET

Recently, TD and Scotiabank, a couple of the biggest banks in Canada, released official reports predicting the fate of Canada’s housing market.

Both TD and Scotiabank have presented similar points. Let’s compare them:

TD

- Housing prices have been strong over the past 10 years, but will flatten for the next decade
- Home prices to average 2% gain over next 10 years (according to Chief Economist Craig Alexander)
- No housing bubble in Canada = no pop
- High level of immigrants to continue fueling strong demand in big cities, like Toronto and Vancouver

Scotiabank

- The next couple years may see a drop in prices, but will correct itself quickly
- No bubble, no crash
- Baby boomers healthier and wealthier than previous generation, so they will stay in homes longer to wait out the flattening of prices – affecting the resale market for the next few years.
- Immigrants to fuel new home industry in big cities.

So, for Toronto, one of the most important things to take away from these reports is that both state that immigrants will maintain the strong demand in big cities. With many baby boomers staying put, and condo purchasers holding onto their investments, the new home industry will continue to thrive in order to accommodate the large amount of immigrants choosing Toronto as their home. Condo investors with finished units may decide to rent them out while they wait for prices to spike, so the rental market will probably be strong, too.

According to Scotiabank’s Senior Economist, immigrants are more likely to reside in “large and mid-sized urban centres,” in comparison to people born in Canada. Toronto is the biggest city in Canada, and probably the most diverse, so we should continue to receive our fair share of immigrants, which in turn, will maintain our strong condo market.

So, if anything, this all means that it’s a good time to buy! Prices will be lower, and a moderate increase is predicted for the near future.

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